Thoughts on the Future of Education
So I usually don't write about real serious stuff on here -- I usually don't write much about anything on here -- but a neat little contest from fellow HBS alum Rafael Corrales has inspired me to put my thoughts down. It's a pertinent topic for me, and not least because I'm a consultant who sometimes thinks a little bit about the education industry. As a new father, I often think about all the exciting ways that my 18-month old son Jack's education will be different from my own, and how lucky he is to have been born in America in 2008.
Here's how I think the education world will shake out in the next 10-25 years:
- Most students will take classes online. I was amazed to learn, recently, that it's entirely possible to get a fully-accredited PhD without ever stepping foot in a physical classroom, thanks to the rise of powerful online universities like Capella and Phoenix. These schools are not the oft-criticized "diploma mills" that the popular press likes to take potshots at. These are real, regionally-accredited, nationally recognized degree programs that fully qualify for all federal Title IV funding, and offer degrees that are recognized by every employer in the world. The online world will continue to grow exponentially, at the expense of traditional brick-and-mortar schools. In 20 years, I wouldn't be surprised to see a substantial portion (25-50%) of all university degrees to be awarded by online universities. Incidentally, when a university is fully online, its students are going to need a good online gradebook, and companies like LearnBoost will be well-positioned to meet that need (even more well-positioned if aforementioned gradebook is also a free gradebook).
- For-profits will continue to take share. The stigma against for-profit universities will continue to erode, as more and more higher-quality offerings come to the market, such as those mentioned above. Although the education world continues to harbor an irrational resentment and suspicion towards those players that make an honest profit in the education space, the fact is that the offerings from the for-profit players are often more interesting, innovative, and forward-looking than the ways that the old fuddy-duddy traditional universities do business.
- Humanities and liberal arts degrees will decline. I say this sadly, as a former History and Literature concentrator, but my son is probably going to have to major in a so-called "STEM" (science, technology, math, and engineering) field if he wants to maximize his employment options. I love the fact that I went through college reading the greats of Western literature, and writing a very thoughtful honors thesis on the work of Arthur Miller, but it has done diddly in terms of preparing me for the 21st century workforce.
- It will be possible to earn a degree on an iPad. This goes along with the transition to online colleges, but I imagine my son will take several classes from his iPad (or whatever they will be calling it in 20 years). My son Jack is only 18 months old and he can use my iPad proficiently - swipe between pages, open apps, and select menu items. Imagine if there's a math class that uses the iPad to engage his natural curiousity, packages the content in a game or a multimedia experience, and he can carry it in his backpack 24/7? Now that's exciting - and far less of a backbreaker than the old textbook I used to lug uphill three miles to and from school (barefoot in the snow, of course).
As you can hopefully tell, I'm very excited about what all this means for the future of education, and what it also means for the future of America. What are your thoughts?
PS: If you want to write a post like this, there might be a free iPhone 4 in it for you. Head on over to Rafael's blog to read all about the great contest he's running, and if you have a blog yourself, take a stab at an article like this. If I win the iPhone, I'll be sure to post an update. And lest you think there's any kind of conflict of interest, although Rafael and I have interacted a fair amount on Twitter, I don't think we've ever actually met. He seems like a great guy, though, and I look forward to buying him a beer when we finally get to meet someday.
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